January reflected a seasonally typical reset across Marin County. According to Compass market data, the three-month rolling median house price in January 2026 was about 1.5% lower year over year, largely reflecting offers negotiated in late 2025 rather than current buyer demand. Price movement remains consistent with historical winter patterns, with spring typically bringing renewed upward pressure.

Inventory conditions are beginning to shift. New listings rose 22% year over year, and active plus coming-soon listings increased to 259 by early February, signaling the early stages of the spring supply cycle. Luxury home sales ($4M+) remained quiet, in line with mid-winter norms. Overall, the market is showing seasonal normalization, stable pricing, and improving inventory, not signs of structural slowdown.

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As the market transitions toward spring, these signals help clarify the broader outlook: activity is gradually rebuilding, buyer choice is expanding, and sellers are entering a more competitive environment. This is not a moment defined by urgency, but by informed planning — where preparation, pricing strategy, and timing will shape the strongest outcomes.

If you’re considering your next move in Marin County, now is the ideal time to align today’s data with a clear strategy. Contact the McCarthy + Moe Group to explore your options with confidence as the spring market takes shape.

Source: compass.com